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Time Series Modelling
Time Series Modelling Case Study – Oil Price Forecasting
This individual Time Series Modelling Case Study focuses on analysing and forecasting oil price data using established time-series techniques and an alternative modelling approach. The assessment requires students to work with daily oil price information covering the period from 2024 to 2026 and investigate the underlying patterns, stationarity and forecasting behaviour of the data. The first part of the assignment involves exploratory data analysis and time-series modelling using an ARMA-based approach. Students are required to create appropriate visualisations of the data, perform exploratory analysis and conduct tests for non-stationarity, including relevant stationarity diagnostics such as ADF, ACF and PACF analysis and differencing where required. An ARMA model must then be defined, with suitable model parameters identified using the AIC likelihood approach. The assessment requires the student to examine possible combinations of model parameters, assess model residuals, evaluate model performance using appropriate metrics such as RMSE, and produce forecasts extending 24 months into the future. Confidence intervals must also be included with the forecasts. The second part requires students to investigate an alternative modelling solution for the same oil-price time-series data. Possible approaches discussed in the assignment include models such as LSTM and Prophet. Students are expected to conduct a literature review relating to the selected alternative model, build and apply the model, tune relevant hyperparameters where appropriate, generate 24-month forecasts, create suitable visualisations and calculate appropriate evaluation metrics. The final part of the assessment requires a 6–8 page report describing the modelling process, forecasts, analysis and inferences. The report should explain the reasoning behind the analytical and modelling choices rather than simply presenting numerical results. Students are expected to critically discuss why particular approaches were selected, how the modelling decisions may have influenced the results, how forecasts compare with subsequently collected real data where available, and what improvements could be made in future work. The assessment evaluates both the technical implementation and the quality of the written analysis. The code component assesses completion of the modelling and forecasting tasks, stationarity testing, the alternative solution, code quality and annotation. The report component assesses discussion of the analysis and inferences, comparison of the modelling approaches, clarity of interpretation, report structure, appropriate use of figures and suitable academic references. The submission consists of a report in PDF or Word format, with the code submitted separately or through an appropriate repository.
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Data Science / Time Series Analysis / Machine Learning
Time Series Modelling Case Study: Oil Price Forecasting with ARMA and Alternative Models
This Time Series Modelling Case Study requires students to analyse real-world oil-price time-series data and develop forecasting models capable of predicting future values. The assessment combines traditional statistical time-series techniques with an alternative forecasting approach, requiring students to demonstrate practical modelling skills, critical research engagement and evidence-based interpretation of forecasting results. The coursework is completed individually and contributes 40% of the assessment. assing,,, (1) The assessment is divided into three main parts. Part 1 focuses on developing an ARMA-based forecasting model using daily oil-price data covering approximately 2024 to 2026. Students begin with exploratory data analysis and initial visualisation before testing whether the time series is stationary. Where necessary, appropriate transformations or differencing must be applied to obtain stationarity. Students then define an ARMA model and identify suitable p, d and q parameters using an AIC-based model-selection procedure across the parameter ranges specified in the brief. assing,,, (1) Model adequacy must be assessed using diagnostic analysis. Students inspect residuals, generate additional ACF plots, examine residual distributions and evaluate prediction performance using appropriate metrics such as RMSE. The selected model is then used to forecast oil prices 24 months into the future, with appropriate confidence intervals added to communicate forecast uncertainty. assing,,, (1) Part 2 requires students to research and implement an alternative forecasting approach. Suggested examples include LSTM and Prophet, although another appropriate model may be proposed. Students conduct a literature review supporting the alternative method, build and where relevant hyperparameter-tune the model, generate another 24-month forecast, visualise predictions and confidence intervals, and calculate suitable evaluation metrics. This component is intended to demonstrate independent research and the ability to propose an alternative solution rather than relying only on the conventional ARMA approach. assing,,, (1) Part 3 consists of a 6–8 page technical report explaining the modelling process, forecasting results and resulting inferences. The report should provide a critical analysis rather than simply reproducing numerical outputs. Students are expected to explain why results occurred, justify modelling choices, evaluate how those choices influenced performance, compare forecasts with subsequently observed real data where possible, and construct a coherent narrative supported by plots, images, summary statistics and academic literature. Future improvements to the modelling approach should also be critically discussed. assing,,, (1) Submission consists of both the report and working code. The code may be submitted directly or through an accessible Colab or GitHub repository and must reproduce all models, figures and numerical results presented in the report. The assessment allocates 60% of the marks to code and 40% to the report. Within the coding component, modelling and forecasting completion accounts for 40 marks and code quality and annotation for 20 marks. The report is assessed on analysis and inference, methodological justification, comparison of the two modelling approaches, presentation quality, figures and use of appropriate references. assing,,, (1) Key technical expectations include appropriate testing for stationarity, use of methods such as ADF, ACF, PACF and differencing, systematic model selection, forecasting, evaluation and clear comparison between the traditional ARMA model and the chosen alternative approach. Higher-quality work is expected to interpret what the forecasts mean, identify potential improvements and demonstrate sound technical communication rather than merely reporting model outputs. assing,,, (1) Important for the public Reference Library: the brief explicitly states that students must not use generative AI to write the report, and the rubric indicates that AI text-generation use may result in zero marks for the whole assignment. Therefore, the public entry should remain a high-level description of the assessment rather than material intended for direct submission. assing,,, (1)
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Machine Learning / Cloud Computing
2,000 words
Technical Evaluation and Professional Reflection on a Cloud-Based Machine Learning Fraud Detection Solution
This postgraduate individual assessment critically evaluates a cloud-based machine learning solution for financial fraud detection developed as part of a preceding group project. The scenario concerns a financial services organisation seeking to detect fraudulent transactions in order to reduce financial losses and strengthen customer security. The individual report requires students to examine both the technical quality of the developed solution and their own professional contribution to the project. NUL - LD7187 -Assessment Brief … The first component, Technical Evaluation, accounts for 50% of the assessment and has a suggested allocation of approximately 1,000 words. Students critically analyse the group solution with particular attention to data preprocessing, machine learning model choices, evaluation metrics and technical limitations. The analysis should go beyond description by explaining how specific modelling and design decisions influenced the final outcomes of the fraud-detection system. NUL - LD7187 -Assessment Brief … The second component, Reflection and Professional Issues, also accounts for 50% and is approximately 1,000 words. Students critically reflect on their personal contribution, teamwork experience, challenges encountered and lessons learned during the project. The discussion also addresses wider professional and ethical considerations associated with AI and cloud-based machine learning, including bias, fairness, sustainability and data privacy. NUL - LD7187 -Assessment Brief … The assessment is designed to demonstrate critical understanding of machine learning methods, cloud-computing architectures, practical development of machine learning solutions and awareness of the social, ethical and sustainability implications of AI technologies. A Seminar Activity Tracker must also be included as an appendix to provide evidence of weekly participation and knowledge development. NUL - LD7187 -Assessment Brief … NUL - LD7187 -Assessment Brief … Higher-level performance requires a comprehensive connection between technical decisions and outcomes alongside deep reflection on teamwork, professional development, ethics, fairness and sustainability. NUL - LD7187 -Assessment Brief … Overview word count: approximately 300 words. AI-use note: the brief permits AI for limited support such as grammar improvement, structure, organising ideas and suggestions. The student's main content, analysis and conclusions must remain their own, and any AI use must be declared. NUL - LD7187 -Assessment Brief …
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Principles of Data Science
2,000 words
Principles of Data Science – Data Analysis Portfolio
This portfolio assignment for the Principles of Data Science module at Coventry University requires students to analyse the Global Life-Work Balance Index 2025 dataset using statistical and data science techniques in R. The dataset ranks 60 countries according to life-work balance using factors including statutory annual leave, paid maternity leave, sick leave, healthcare, public safety, public happiness, LGBTQ inclusivity and average working hours per employee. The assignment has a 2,000-word equivalent limit, excluding the reference list and output. The portfolio consists of two main tasks. Task 1 is a group task involving multivariate data analysis. Students must use R to perform Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and Cluster Analysis on the dataset. For PCA, students analyse quantitative variables, produce and interpret relevant visualisations such as screeplots, biplots and loadings plots, and investigate the effects of Region and Healthcare System. The PCA analysis also requires comparison of the overall dataset with countries from Europe. The cluster analysis component requires students to cluster both countries and variables using different distance metrics and hierarchical clustering methods. Students compare methods such as Manhattan and Euclidean distances and single linkage and Ward’s method, present comparisons in compact tables, and interpret relevant dendrograms. They must then compare the conclusions obtained from PCA and Cluster Analysis, identifying common insights and apparent conflicts and discussing the extent to which the results are explainable rather than simply interpretable. Task 2 is an individual task focusing on Exploratory Data Analysis and Linear Models. Students create a scatter matrix using ggpairs(), investigate strongly correlated variables, and identify quantitative variables that may help predict Region for European and Asian countries. They then develop and critically assess linear regression models for predicting Score, including models based on employment variables and broader quantitative predictors. Model comparison and selection use concepts including AIC, while diagnostic plots are used to identify countries requiring further investigation. The individual task also requires students to use European Life-Work Balance Index 2023 data to make predictions for European countries not included in the 2025 dataset and to construct a Residuals versus Fitted Values plot. Finally, students must combine the conclusions from their individual linear modelling work with the PCA and Cluster Analysis findings to identify specific discoveries about the variables and countries in the dataset. R code, output and relevant plots must be included directly within the reports. The assignment encourages use of the R tidyverse and requires appropriate referencing of sources. The brief specifies APA-style referencing for the individual and group work. It also states that generative AI may be used for inspiration but not for generating answers or analysing the datasets, and any permitted AI use must be acknowledged and documented.
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Technical Evaluation and Professional Reflection on a Cloud-Based Machine Learning Fraud Detection Solution
This individual technical evaluative report forms the reflective and critical component of the Machine Learning on Cloud module. It builds directly upon a group project involving the development of a machine learning solution for financial fraud detection. The report requires each student to critically evaluate the technical decisions made within the group solution while also reflecting on their individual contribution, teamwork experience and professional development. The first component, Technical Evaluation, accounts for 50% of the individual assessment and has a suggested allocation of approximately 1,000 words. Students critically examine the group’s machine learning solution, including the approaches adopted for data preprocessing, model selection and evaluation. They are expected to discuss the suitability of the chosen techniques and metrics, identify limitations and explain how individual technical decisions affected the final performance and outcome of the fraud-detection solution. The second component, Reflection and Professional Issues, also accounts for 50% and has a suggested allocation of approximately 1,000 words. Students reflect critically on their personal contribution to the project and their experience of working within a team. The discussion addresses challenges encountered, lessons learned and how the experience contributed to technical and professional development. Professional and ethical considerations form an important part of the reflection. Relevant issues include algorithmic bias, fairness, sustainability and data privacy, particularly in relation to machine learning applications within financial services and cloud environments. Students are also required to attach their Seminar Activity Tracker as an appendix, providing evidence of weekly participation and knowledge development. The assessment therefore combines technical critique with reflective practice, requiring students to demonstrate that they understand not only how a machine learning solution was developed, but also why specific technical decisions were made, their consequences, the limitations of the resulting system and the wider ethical and professional implications of deploying AI on cloud infrastructure. Overview word count: approximately 315 words. The brief also states that AI may assist with areas such as grammar, structure, organisation of ideas and suggestions, but the main content, analysis and conclusions must be the student's own work, and AI use must be declared.
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