This individual Time Series Modelling Case Study focuses on analysing and forecasting oil price data using established time-series techniques and an alternative modelling approach. The assessment requires students to work with daily oil price information covering the period from 2024 to 2026 and investigate the underlying patterns, stationarity and forecasting behaviour of the data. The first part of the assignment involves exploratory data analysis and time-series modelling using an ARMA-based approach. Students are required to create appropriate visualisations of the data, perform exploratory analysis and conduct tests for non-stationarity, including relevant stationarity diagnostics such as ADF, ACF and PACF analysis and differencing where required. An ARMA model must then be defined, with suitable model parameters identified using the AIC likelihood approach. The assessment requires the student to examine possible combinations of model parameters, assess model residuals, evaluate model performance using appropriate metrics such as RMSE, and produce forecasts extending 24 months into the future. Confidence intervals must also be included with the forecasts. The second part requires students to investigate an alternative modelling solution for the same oil-price time-series data. Possible approaches discussed in the assignment include models such as LSTM and Prophet. Students are expected to conduct a literature review relating to the selected alternative model, build and apply the model, tune relevant hyperparameters where appropriate, generate 24-month forecasts, create suitable visualisations and calculate appropriate evaluation metrics. The final part of the assessment requires a 6–8 page report describing the modelling process, forecasts, analysis and inferences. The report should explain the reasoning behind the analytical and modelling choices rather than simply presenting numerical results. Students are expected to critically discuss why particular approaches were selected, how the modelling decisions may have influenced the results, how forecasts compare with subsequently collected real data where available, and what improvements could be made in future work. The assessment evaluates both the technical implementation and the quality of the written analysis. The code component assesses completion of the modelling and forecasting tasks, stationarity testing, the alternative solution, code quality and annotation. The report component assesses discussion of the analysis and inferences, comparison of the modelling approaches, clarity of interpretation, report structure, appropriate use of figures and suitable academic references. The submission consists of a report in PDF or Word format, with the code submitted separately or through an appropriate repository.
Time Series Analysis · Time Series Modelling · Oil Price Forecasting · ARMA · ACF · PACF · Stationarity · ADF Test · Differencing · Model Selection · AIC · Forecasting
Megaminds has supported academic requirements in time series modelling, time series modelling and related disciplines.