Time Series Modelling
Time Series Modelling Case Study – Oil Price Forecasting
This individual Time Series Modelling Case Study focuses on analysing and forecasting oil price data using established time-series techniques and an alternative modelling approach. The assessment requires students to work with daily oil price information covering the period from 2024 to 2026 and investigate the underlying patterns, stationarity and forecasting behaviour of the data. The first part of the assignment involves exploratory data analysis and time-series modelling using an ARMA-based approach. Students are required to create appropriate visualisations of the data, perform exploratory analysis and conduct tests for non-stationarity, including relevant stationarity diagnostics such as ADF, ACF and PACF analysis and differencing where required. An ARMA model must then be defined, with suitable model parameters identified using the AIC likelihood approach. The assessment requires the student to examine possible combinations of model parameters, assess model residuals, evaluate model performance using appropriate metrics such as RMSE, and produce forecasts extending 24 months into the future. Confidence intervals must also be included with the forecasts. The second part requires students to investigate an alternative modelling solution for the same oil-price time-series data. Possible approaches discussed in the assignment include models such as LSTM and Prophet. Students are expected to conduct a literature review relating to the selected alternative model, build and apply the model, tune relevant hyperparameters where appropriate, generate 24-month forecasts, create suitable visualisations and calculate appropriate evaluation metrics. The final part of the assessment requires a 6–8 page report describing the modelling process, forecasts, analysis and inferences. The report should explain the reasoning behind the analytical and modelling choices rather than simply presenting numerical results. Students are expected to critically discuss why particular approaches were selected, how the modelling decisions may have influenced the results, how forecasts compare with subsequently collected real data where available, and what improvements could be made in future work. The assessment evaluates both the technical implementation and the quality of the written analysis. The code component assesses completion of the modelling and forecasting tasks, stationarity testing, the alternative solution, code quality and annotation. The report component assesses discussion of the analysis and inferences, comparison of the modelling approaches, clarity of interpretation, report structure, appropriate use of figures and suitable academic references. The submission consists of a report in PDF or Word format, with the code submitted separately or through an appropriate repository.
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Computer Science / Research Methods / Specialist Research
2,800 words
Research Specialism Report: Critical Review of Open Research Questions in Computer Science
This Advanced Research Topics in Computer Science assessment requires students to critically examine a research paper associated with their chosen MSc specialism and demonstrate an understanding of how established research techniques are used to create and extend knowledge in computer science. Eligible specialisms include Artificial Intelligence, Networking, Cyber Security, Software Engineering and Data Science. The assessment is intended to prepare students for deeper independent research as part of their Master's project. 7COM1084+Research+specialism+re… Students begin by providing a clear introduction to their selected research specialism and explaining the broader research area in a way that is accessible to readers with general computer-science knowledge. The report then identifies the open research question presented in the relevant 7COM1084 specialist lecture paper, explains the problem in detail and evaluates why it is scientifically significant or relevant to a real-world application. 7COM1084+Research+specialism+re… A substantial literature-review section requires students to examine existing and related research beyond the specialist lecture paper. The aim is to identify what previous work has achieved, explain why existing approaches do not fully solve the research problem and identify further unresolved questions. 7COM1084+Research+specialism+re… The research-methods section focuses on the approaches used in the selected specialist paper. Students are expected to describe and critically evaluate those methods, considering both their strengths and limitations. They must then propose an alternative or extended research approach that could build on the published work and investigate related open problems, drawing on principles of experimental design and theoretical or practical research. 7COM1084+Research+specialism+re… The final reflective component asks students to explain their personal investment in the research area, including why the selected question interests them and how their own strengths and prior experience would support future research in that domain. 7COM1084+Research+specialism+re… The report must not exceed 2,800 words ±10%, must use the Harvard referencing system, and must include at least 20 references, one of which must be the relevant 7COM1084 specialist paper. 7COM1084+Research+specialism+re… 7COM1084+Research+specialism+re… 7COM1084+Research+specialism+re… Overall, the assessment integrates research specialism knowledge, literature review, open-problem identification, methodological critique, research design, future-work development and scholarly communication within a Level 7 computer-science research context.
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